The monetary authority believes it will maintain a similar scheme to that & # 39; the last two months. S & # 39; will be two "canillas" which received the dollars
¿Of & # 39; manage the – shortages a handle the – abundance? the – miss a & # 39; dorLARES to cover the – incessant demand has been the – steady a & # 39; this one 2018, what esta a few mas a & # 39; a month a & # 39; said ADIors.
the – Bank central, now with & # 39; Guido Sandleris a the – head, logror stabilizes the – kind a & # 39; change. lowor strong the – shopping a & # 39; currency a divided a & # 39; his price increase, and it escortñadored from rates a & # 39; interés aÚn tall and one recessionorn what not Provided truce.
in this one framework, from the – authority monetary prevén a 2019 mas appeared a they Úthe last both months what a the – moments TraumaTicos a & # 39; 2018. "when one project the – offer to the – año what fall & # 39;, everything point a what the – país will havea excess a & # 39; dorLARES" itñwings a iProfessjonarju a importantíSimo officer of – Bank central.
1.- A strong brake a & # 39; the – demand from part a & # 39; the – b & # 39; in particular: the – hoarding it reduced a and$s1.100 millions in September and a and$s500 millions in October. in November can & # 39;ía is, even, a few mas below a & # 39; this one Úthe last number
2.- one caíProvided many pronounced in the – shopping a & # 39; the – importers: it has been result of – jump of – dorlar, what expensiveor the – products, and from the – shrinkage a & # 39; the – activity, what hit to Consumption a & # 39; goods
3.- one reductionorn a & # 39; the – bÚsearch a & # 39; dorLARES to coverage"the – companies now they speculate lower" are secure in the – corridors officer. in other words, itñalan what many what they bought and mechanism a & # 39; shelter not will havean just need a & # 39; do it, why habra lower volatility in the – market.
4.- the – greater sale a & # 39; tickets green to cancel debts in charges: it something what already fall & # 39; happens, such a and have bill iProfessjonarju. "Al final of – día, it estan release and what is a process positive" affirm from the – Bank central.
the – picture current, with & # 39; some shades, is the – what the – officials believe what can & # 39;ía stay the – año what fall & # 39; weigh a is a año election, what generally is mas volahelpful what one without elections a & # 39; from medium. the – forecasts it bill a & # 39; one demand what not it overflowá, such a and happenedor in 2018.
Stillía esta cool a data: between april and September (so sorwhat in six months) the – BCRA and the – Treasure they sold reservations from almost and$S23.000 millions and, still andí, the – kind a & # 39; change SUBIor a & # 39; $20 a $40. it one movieícula what the – Government not can & # 39; permit what it repeat.
now fine,a & # 39; dorNDE salvera the – greater offer what, in the – framework a & # 39; a level a & # 39; shopping mas surrounded, earnía the – arm wrestling Niskambja in 2019? good part a & # 39; what answer there what find in the – duo "field – IMF" indicated from the – BCRA.
in what what respect a the – currency following of – Fund, over the – año election the – Government receivea approximately and$S22.820 millions from the – préloan stand–from, a the – what it add upan and$s3.000 millions a & # 39; other organisms multilateral.
those dorLARES isan destined to payment a & # 39; debt, just in currency local and in other Signs monetary. howí, Nicolas Dujovne will havea what sell part a & # 39; those tickets green in the – market to cancel liabilities in charges.
how it know, the – money is fungible, with & # 39; what which one the – need a & # 39; sale a & # 39; currency American in the – square local isa subject a fluctuations and can & # 39;ía not is Úonly destined a the – cancellationorn a & # 39; compromises.
the – entity commanded from Sandleris hara auctions in the – circuit exchange from bill and order of – Treasure, such a and happenedor this one año. Of & # 39; ahí what the – rhythm relya a & # 39; the – requirements a & # 39; box what have Dujovne.
Esta virtually waste what the – markets it open to the – issuers argentines and andí it get currency. the – greater player, the – sovereign, not what hara. Y the – companies what can & # 39; have requirements the – año prorXimo dutyan wait a see whaté step with & # 39; the – rates a & # 39; interés (in the – world and in the – The Argentina) to decide your plans.
Al money what supplya the – organism a & # 39; crécredit international it it add upa to "contribution" what do the – field. A actor key what, a cause a & # 39; the – droughtía, he was almost absent in 2018. the – "soyorLARES" again & # 39; backan a have a role protagornico in the – economyía.
in the – sector it calculate what the – exports argentines go aroundan the – and$S18.000 millions, nÚsimple what detached a & # 39; beverages and reference one productionorn a & # 39; 54 millions a & # 39; tons a & # 39; soya, a & # 39; the – which ones stayía a balance exportable a & # 39; 50 millions.
Yes fine one part minor a & # 39; what total leaves and poroto and the – greatería and oil and flour, the – courage a & # 39; you both Úthe last esta referral to first. howí, assuming a price a & # 39; exportorn (FOB) a & # 39; and$S350 (the – officer what publishing agro-industry in November 2018 is and$s359 to the – poroto a & # 39; soya) what what the – field can & # 39;ía have to sell rises a what number (and$S18.000 millions).
Claro what the – total liquidated relya a & # 39; many features: prices of – market international, values FOB, intentionorn a & # 39; sale a & # 39; the – producers and, about everything, yes finally must liquidated the – currency o it showan reticent.
it happens what the – Government them quitor a the – companies exporters the – obligationsorn a & # 39; meet with & # 39; deadline some to liquidated: yes not must, can & # 39; not do it. Of & # 39; done, was what what pasor in the – months a & # 39; strong devaluationorn. También, can & # 39; lean from throw away sorwhat a & # 39; what needed to the – repurchase a & # 39; dealería.
in the – guild a & # 39; the – economists not it breath a air a & # 39; left on optimism. one a & # 39; the – voices mas listening & # 39; from the – entrepreneurs is, without doubts, the – a & # 39; the – duo Carlos Melconian–Rodolfo Santangelo.
"Beía b & # 39; health what the – excess a & # 39; dorLARES come, in greater measuring, of – increase a & # 39; the – exports and a & # 39; the – caíProvided in hoarding and tourism, and not just of – crash importer and a & # 39; a again & # 39; start of – "carry business"", itñwings the – signature.
Increasingas, warning what a & # 39; not generate in ALGÚn time oversupply to what the – BCRA have the – selectionorn a & # 39; buy amounts significant (some and$S5.000 over the – first semester 2019) the – "tratransit econorMico to December isa mas difficult"
Melconian and Santangelo warn what a measuring what it approach the – electionorn presidential (in May closes the – deadline to download alliances and in June to the – candidates) is many likely what the – hoarding it increase. Mas still yes the – survey it dieran bad to officialism and fine a Cristina fernsandez, already what it injecta one greater pressureorn to market exchange.
in his visionorn, the – squeezeorn monetary a & # 39; October (caíProvided of – money flowing and the – sÚeach rates a & # 39; interés) mas the – effects a & # 39; transfer and redirect (a & # 39; deporSito transactional and holdings a & # 39; Lebac to time fixed) it true margin to what in November and December the – rates it normalization. this, in nÚsimple, is again & # 39; back a the – levels a & # 39; 60% annual what había before of – plan.
"but to what the – rates download in serious and the – silver in the – way and the – crécredit not drown mas a & # 39; the – bill the – level a & # 39; activity, the – Bank central dutyía in ALGÚn time buy dorLARES in the – market, product a & # 39; what the – kind a & # 39; change drill the – ground a & # 39; the – band from one oversupply important and durable a & # 39; dorLARES" concludes MacroView.