Wednesday , July 28 2021

Dollars for a mattress, pesos to banks: and the end of the recession? – 25/11/2018



The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) anticipated, after a strong momentum in the past two years, the world economy is on the road to decline.

The trade war & # 39; The United States and China (Key point of the G20 meeting & # 39; this week in & # 39; Bus Buenos Aires), the consequences of the release of the UK from the European Union and the potential increase in the rate of -imgħax of US bonds. They aim to complicate the global economic landscape.

The emerging countries will pay part of the consequences of & # 39; these changes in the developed world and, in & # 39; this context, Argentina will play its game the more you do it in & # 39; election year.

As part of that cocktail is the process ingredient & # 39; & # 39 adjustment; the economy & # 39; Argentina in the & # 39; & # 39 with this; the stamp dollar between June and September generated because the international market stopped funding the country.

In the past seven & # 39; weeks, and an extraordinary support (amount, US $ 57 100 million, and speed) of the International Monetary Fund, the government managed to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

This result is relevant from both financial results: wholesale dollar & # 39; $ 36.63, b & # 39; & # 39 increase; Only 0.1% in & # 39; month, and the surge in deposits in & # 39; weights & # 39; & # 39 f individuals, banks.

The exchange rate of calm, even, leads to some predictions, the study & # 39; Orlando Ferreres, For example, start talking about inflation & # 39; you & # 39 November; be closer to 2.5% from 3% the government estimated that it was the best.

The dollar quieter help moderate the increase in prices driven up another to inflation and increase the purchasing power of wages.

The calm, as well as traditional in Argentina, driven transfer & # 39; part of the dollars accumulated in times & # 39; uncertainty for placements in & # 39; fees in the financial system.

From matching & # 39; evolution & # 39; Private deposits and loans in & # 39; charges made by Study Ricardo Arriazu It seems that fixed terms increased by 282% between October and September.

Deposits in & # 39; dollars but also grown, in & # 39; in this case, in putting in & # 39; account & # 39; savings.

Reading quickly indicates seekers at high rates in & # 39; weights are willing to risk more holders & # 39; dollars in deposit & # 39; hands to have more information.

But the relevant fact is that, whether pesos or dollars, deposits grow while the loan, the other side of reality & # 39; bank, failed and f & # 39; sigh.

The pLoans in & # 39; piżs decreased $ 21 344 million between September and October and continued to fall in the first week & # 39; in November.

Credit f & # 39; dollars (remember that banks can only agree with & # 39; or & # 39 companies, export activities) fell almost US $ 600 million in & # 39; September and continued to fall f & # 39; about US $ 300 million in & # 39; & # beginning October 39, November.

In bank accounts to capture dollars that most of them are integrated by the Central Bank, and in pesos side is to take deposits from the private sector, in the majority, are placed Liquidity Lyrics (Leliq) Central Bank now pays about 61.7% per annum.

That result is sought Guido Sandleris, The president of the Central Bank, to advance with its target & # 39; zero growth in the amount of & # 39; money, in an attempt to keep the dollar and calm inflation.

Photo & # 39; that reality shows that a good part of the dollars & # 39; Argentinian still in the mattress, another went to pesos and is in the banks but those deposits they turn to for a loan. While awaiting way & # 39; credit growth without recession is vain. Duration activity with hand brake?


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