The meeting of the Group & # 39; Twenty (G20) to be held the next week in & # 39; you & # Bus Buenos 39; means more than traffic problems and safety. At least for agri.
The context in which it occurs summit of developed countries and developing could not be more complex. The effects of the commercial confrontation between the US and China, the major economies of the world, led to consequences that have not been completed. In principle, changed business soy as China has responded to the anti & # 39; the US by increasing charges & # 39; the import duty on beans from the United States. and affected exports b & # 39; 14,000 million dollars.
For several weeks in the market & # 39; Chicago any rumors or news & # 39; possible negotiations between Washington and Beijing have served as a strong argument for quotes. S & # 39; now there was more speculation than data. Now the focus will be on the meeting between the President of the United States Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in & # 39; Bus Buenos Aires. Both are necessary, but, at the same time, do not seem willing to give.
This dispute between the Giants was not in the plans & # 39; those who believe that Chinese demand for soybeans is infinite. One of the derivations of trade war was China announced its intention to begin replacing soybeans with & # 39; other grains allow transform the vegetable protein in & # 39; animals. For the time being will be on a small scale, but it is the first change to change in & # 39; trend seems irreversible.
Another consequence is that China will seek more soy in America the & # 39; South. First, Brazil was favored with sofrax drought that affected Argentina. For the current cycle, the Brazil provides, at least harvest & # 39; 120 million tonnes, although some estimate will already reach 137 million tons. The bean exports reach 80 million tons, of which 80% are destined for China. But the policy has already started making noises. The president-elect of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, criticized Chinese investments in & # 39; countrymen. Again & # 39; other, the protectionist alarms were heard to the extent that the current Minister of Agriculture of Brazil, Blairo Maggi, made clear that the future president m & # 39; has the intention to affect TRADE.
The declarations of pyrotechnic statements & # 39; Bolsonaro be capped on the realism of the strategic interests of his country. And agriculture is one of them. He confirmed that the appointment of the coordinator of the rural bank, Tereza Cristina, as the Minister of Agriculture next. For Argentina, the question of the fate of Mercosur opens. Future occupants of the palace & # 39; Planalto already said the regional bloc is not a priority. B & # 39; strict way, this means that it will renegotiate the terms of the customs union and seek agreements country by country. For that quota & # 39; realism is unlikely that Brazil will suspend preferential tariff of Mercosur on Argentine wheat. Bolsonaro not received within the G20, but his arrival at & # 39; Brazilia will also have an impact on international trade.
The other scenario that can & # 39; bring something new in the G20 will be bilateral meetings. In the case of Argentina, the support of the Trump MACRI administration in agreement with the IMF can & # 39; be extended to the business sector. The highest expectations are placed on the opening awaited the beef meat market – m & # 39; no excuses kept closed – and any additional definition of biodiesel after the announcement by the Department of Commerce on review & # 39; against biofuels measures & # 39; Argentina origin.
In form, the G20 will confirm the document of Agriculture Ministers signed last July in & # 39; Bus Buenos Aires where there is a clear recognition of science and technology in agricultural production evidence. The Argentina influenced to adopt this criterion in a statement. It is antecedent to take into account, especially before any governments & # 39; & # 39 countries; the European Union in which there is an ancient vision of agricultural production and trade & # 39; food.