Wednesday , July 28 2021

Predicts inflation & # 39; 2.5% per month in the first semester



Annual inflation puts close to 30%. They emphasize that b & # 39; stable dollar "the basic basket price will not end '

Predicts inflation & # 39; 2.5% per month in the first semester

Martín VAUTHIER, from Eco Go

Although the national budget for this year provides for annual inflation & # 39; 23%, the analysis jikkalkolawha economic consultancies close to 30%. And engage in the first half of the year, inflation & # 39; monthly average will be & # 39; 2.5%, and predict an increase for July & # 39; more than 15%.

In the Central Bank is ensuring that inflation over the coming months will be similar to that of December, which was 2.6%. And they determined the two cases increases: the increase in regulated prices (tariffs, transport, prepaid, etc..) And the pairs.

Martin VAUTHIER, economist & # 39; Go Eco, predicted average & # 39; Monthly & # 39; between 2% and 3%, due to a combination of & # 39; stable dollar, recession and higher & # 39; very high interest in pesos "to encourage disarmament & # 39; inventories and limit transfer pricing correction of the exchange rate".

"Date & # 39; the first half of who we are reporting week, linked & # 39; food and drink, marked inflation & # 39; 1.7% which is consistent with & # 39; rate under that & # 39; December, "he said.

Similarly, Gabriel Gómez Caamaño, economist & # 39; Ledesma, said that "in & # 39; a no events & # 39; new exchange, and considering that there will be in rate adjustments, we expect the first semester b & # 39; & # 39 rate, average inflation higher monthly. to 2% but less than 3%. "

From Ecolatina indicated that inflation in & # 39; January will be & # 39; 2.5% and will be driven by increases in water and transport in the middle of the month. And advanced that figure will be "expected" also for February and April.

"B & # 39; of calm foreign exchange market, we expect unregulated component moderation & # 39; the Consumer Price Index from the first month of the year, contributing to the maintenance of records & # 39, monthly f & # 39; & # 39 near levels; 2%. "

As forecasts for the year, the last of Search & # 39; the Market Expectations (REM) conducted by the Central Bank between consultants and banks in the financial sector, put the estimate & # 39; inflation for this year to 28.7%.

the Orlando Ferreres & Asociados consultant predicted limit & # 39; 23% per annum, while others Ecolatina estimated 33% in the disaggregated among private.

In 2018, annual inflation, according INDECS, 47 was 0.6%. Most items that increased were transport (66.8%), communication (55.3%), health (50.2%) and food (51.2%).

In Central insist that the Government does not propose "inflationary target". And they explained that "recession and the shock dissolution Exchange 2018 will be responsible for that, according to its analysts deflation of the economy, would & # 39; about 30% per year.


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