Thursday , June 24 2021

Second recession in MACRI era: f & # 39; September collapse was 5.8%



Buenos Aires The economic activity recorded a decrease of & # 39; 5.8% in & # 39; in September, suffered from drastic falls in the trade sector and manufacturing industry, and b & # 39; so formalized second round & # 39; recession during the government & # 39; Mauricio Macrì.

The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDECS) reported yesterday that in & # 39; September estimate of economic activity & # 39; monthly (Emae) decreased by & # 39; 5.8% in respect of the same months of 2017. The data show a serious scenario & # 39; consumption and production sectors.

This is the second largest contraction of the year: the worst figure was f & # 39; in June, when activity decreased 6.8%. F & # 39; that occasion, red explained by the sharp slowdown from the agricultural sector after a historic drought.

But this time it was not the climate or the countryside, but the direct consequences of & # 39; paralyzed economy, where the most productive sectors of the solution is to try to stay & # 39; life in the light of the rate of & # 39; extreme interest face to finance themselves and bleeding of the economy. purchasing power that paralyzes consumption.

It appears from official figures & # 39; in September, confirming that the most affected sectors were wholesale trade, retail trade and repairs (-12.8%), manufacturing (-10.8%), taxes net on subsidies -10.1%), transport and communications (-4.6%) and hotels and restaurants (-4.2%), among others.

On the contrary, the conglomerate of agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry, coming in 2.2%, and wealth performance was divided into fishing (2.8%) and financial intermediation (2.7%), among others.

"Dispelling the negative impact of drought, the economic downturn corresponding to two factors: the increase in exchange rate and inflation acceleration. The consequent reduction of purchasing power in & # 39; dollars and f & # 39; fees reduced demand for durable consumer goods, which led the company to minimize the production, because of the financial cost of maintaining growing stocks high f & # 39; & # 39 context of a reduced sales ", concluded the Ecolatina consultancy.

The private diagnosis indicates that another factor was "that, b & # 39; in particular in & # 39; in September, movements in & # 39; blow of the exchange rate and expectations of & # 39; new agreement with IMF caused uncertainty resign, paralyzing taking & # 39; of & # 39; economic agents' decisions.

With red & # 39; in September, economic activity accumulates its sixth consecutive month of declining: in & # 39; April, fell 0.5%; f & # 39; in May, 5.2%; f & # 39; in June, 6.8%; f & # 39; in July, 2.7%, and in & # 39; in August, 1.9%. Two consecutive quarters in the red are the technical basis for declaring the recession.

It is the second blow of & # 39; the economy MACRI era. Year & # 39; previously occurred in 2016. That decline began in & # 39; March and lasted for nine & # 39; months, b & # 39; collisions reached 4.9 percent.

For now, economic activity accumulating reduction & # 39; 1.5% and private forecasts anticipate more months in red. Even auguries officials indicate that the recession will continue until the first quarter of next year.

Fausto Spotorno, economist and director of the Center of & # 39; Economic Studies Orlando Ferreres, banned the economic activity will re & # 39; fall & # 39; in & # 39; in October, although clarified that weakness can & # 39; is less than f & # 39; September.

"Probably, we have low in October, but not much naqssx, even in & # 39; November and December. And by March, when you start harvesting, economic activity can & # 39; starts to recover," said Spotorno, and ironically: "F & # 39; this point in the 21st century, salvation is whether or not rain."

The dollar jumped in weight & # 39; day

It was the departure of & # 39; day most noticeable in September.

The currency recorded a jump & # 39; $ 1.07 (2.8%) compared to the closing Thursday and placed a $ 36.56 purchase and $ 38.50 for sale in the retail market. The advance was surprising because, according to the operators, represented the most significant increase & # 39; day by the end of & # 39; September.

In the wholesale sector, which operate banks and large companies, the dollar gained 1.10 cents this week and ended at $ 37.6.

printed edition

The original text of & # 39; this article was published on Thursday 11/24/2018 in our print edition.


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