Saturday , December 4 2021

term, bonds, cards and personal loans: what & # 39; will have an impact reduction rates of the Central Bank?



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The reduction in interest rates allowed by the Central Bank after rriżolvi ​​the elimination of land & # 39; 60% that prevailed in the last three months will also reduce collections & # 39; fixed-term and other instruments in & # 39; fees, Although the monetary authority will need to maintain balance in order to provoke new migration & # 39; & # 39 investments in; balance to the dollar.

According to specialists consulted TN.com.ar, Reduction in rates tends to "normalize" the rest of the nominal variables of the economy. And this will translate, savers and consumers, costs fall to borrow money in the open, in financing & # 39; & # 39 cards; credit and f & # 39; personal loans, while also will reduce the performance of & # 39; fixed deadlines, Slightly exceeded 50% during October and November.

Rates & # 39; high interest represented a significant impact on economic activity. Since the end of & # 39; August, when the last high rate & # 39; ħarbit exchange, the Central Bank in & # 39; then led by Luis Caputo decided to raise the rate b & # 39; 15 points to try to alleviate that great escape for the US currency, with a promise maintaining at & # 39; threshold. 60% until December. The new leadership of & # 39; advanced central body in the drilling & # 39; that land.

On the first day of bid & # 39; Leliq after the announcement of the elimination of ground & # 39; minimum rate & # 39; 60% for the monetary policy, financial instrument that is a very short time (7 days) and only be negotiated between had an average yield of & # 39; 59.102%. also, the dollar ended stabilizing as the hours passed and went from an increase & # 39; nearly 70 cents to 5 only.

The Central Bank's decision to undertake to validate a rate lower than 60% is also related to & # 39; external factors. "We can not cope ourselves from the international context, there was a reduction in the price of & # 39; barrels & # 39; oil, which caused inflation expectations in the United States to decline and the Federal Reserve has set rates increase. Locally it means there is less pressure, And it is partly for this reason that the Central Bank has decided to eliminate that ground-& # 39; & # 39 rate; Leliq ", said the analyst Florencia Galván capital market.

Of course, to draw again the path of interest rates & # 39; interest to return to normal levels, in principle, there is a risk in the corner, and it is being done with the required accuracy you can & # 39; means the wake.

"The monetary authority should follow the delicate balance between continuing to reduce the rate to offer the level of & # 39; activity support demand for pesos, without generating an episode of & # 39; exchange halting the decline", Explained Martin VAUTHIER, economist EcoGo advice.

If the Central Bank manages, b & # 39; harmonious way, to follow this path to lower rates without the pressure to return to the weight, the nominal variables, such as interest rates, should start be adjusted. closer to the projected inflation, which is 30% for the & # 39; after twelve months.

F & # 39; this sense, the economist Mariano OTALORA, a specialist in personal finance, found that "the term was & # 39; over 50% with & # 39; rate & # 39; higher reference, and it is now hard to find 43 to 50% or 44% per annum, and & # 39; that, there will also be a reduction in the general rate of the economy, financing & # 39; of & # 39 cards; credit, overdrafts (of checking account advances) and personal loans"

The seasons will also have its own game: December is a month in which the demand for dollars usually increase, mainly as a second half investment of Christmas bonus. "We should not expect a decrease in short-term rates pronounced, but can & # 39; generate eventually selecting & # 39; foreign currency for a fixed term. It is always recommended to have a diversified investment in time, both in selected instruments as well as in & # 39; market sectors and currency ", Galván said.

VAUTHIER proposes to assess whether alternative do in & # 39; & # 39 or in charges, dollars: look at the country risk. "Rate & # 39; 50% per annum is actually rate & # 39; 4.2% per month, so the dollar's movement & # 39; above that percentage ends to liquefied return . " Thus, more than gradual changes in the rate of & # 39; devaluation, which is highly relevant to closely monitor the dynamics of country risk, "he said.

Finally, OTALORA recommend precisely what percentage of & # 39; portfolio should be in & # 39; any currency to avoid unnecessary risks. "The dollar convenience and weight is relative, that high rates does not necessarily mean you should f & # 39; fees, the dollar has already shown in & # 39; November can & # 39; add 5% and eat all the proceeds. Choose to have 70% of the capital in & # 39; dollars and just in pesos and in a short time. "

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