Thursday , June 24 2021

The AMLO and the external environment make forecasting & # 39; Morgan Stanley to Mexico



CITY & # 39; MEXIKU- The Mexican economy will grow by & # 39; more slow than previously expected due to the political uncertainty generated by the change of government following and increase in power & # 39; Andrés Manuel López Obrador , analysts said the bank & # 39; American Morgan Stanley investment.

The financial institution has handed down its forecasts for the performance of the Mexican economy next year, from 2.3 up to 1.7%, due to more adverse environment that will face the country, both externally and internally.

Doubts "about the policy direction are within & # 39; decelerating external demand and tighter financing conditions, indicating downside risks in the horizontal projections", economists & # 39; Morgan Stanley said in & # 39; & # 39 document; economic outlook for Latin America in 2019.

The economists forecast & # 39; that the bank is lower than that estimated by analyst consensus, according to the monthly survey of the most recent Bank of Mexico is & # 39; 2.2%.

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"Firstly, the government transition x & # 39; is likely to cause delays in budget execution, as happened in 2013. F & # 39; that time, public spending and investment has become an obstacle key to the economy, especially in the first half. of the year, "said economists & # 39; Morgan Stanley.

"Secondly, the uncertainty generated by errors & # 39; recent policy work & # 39; likely to limit any significant recovery in investment derived from optimism about the T-MEC (the Mexican Treaty, USA and Canada) and cycle.

Therefore, the expected trajectory of growth of the Mexican economy contrasts with predictions that the bank has for the region, which expect this dynamic goes by growth & # 39; 1.6% in the Gross Domestic Product Latin America to advance 1.9% in the next.

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