Wednesday , May 25 2022

The Argentina less vulnerable: helped the decline of the dollar in the world and now still & # 39; know whether Central will buy or not


The dollar touching the bottom of & # 39; the band and rose & # 39; just without the intervention of the Central Bank. The country risk continued to decline and there was also a timid reduction in the interest rates. The news came on the market were positive enough to celebrate in government.

And in case you did not have grounds, there was a survey which Mauricio MACRI She improved her numbers and incipient calm the global crisis due to the possibility of raising rates in the United States is & # 39; very far and the talks are on track to war trade with China begins to close before the convention in & # 39; Davos, Switzerland. begins on 22 January.

The news welcomed the dollar in the world and in Argentina where the currency in the wholesale market touches the floor & # 39; $ 37.28, Which was the starting order for the Central Bank. B & # 39; that price I & # 39; buy $ 50 million market, but it was not necessary, because immediately returned & # 39; back to $ 37 305. 11: 30 reached the highest price of & # 39; $ 30.45 and then entered into a slide failure & # 39; buyers. The price which closed on Monday is equal to the value of the party & # 39; bottom of the range & # 39; $ 37.30 on Tuesday. Do not forget that this band & # 39; flotation to adjust daily average & # 39; 2% per month.

Remains & # 39; knows if this time the Central Bank is going to buy. It announced that it will acquire up to USD 50 million per day.

B & # 39; this price, the dollar is & # 39; $ 10 range & # 39; on. Exporters complain about the exchange rate b & # 39; back, but the survey shows people happy with the low dollar and the government is less real wage decline.

Anyway, it is necessary to see whether anesthesia shortly when increases in transport starting at the end of & # 39; January to new accounts of gas, water and electricity come home. Not applicable increase in prepaid medicine and other services, including cable. It is true that provisions & # 39; activation will be in place by March and increases in salaries discussed. Anything goes for presidential elections and get out of the "prison" causing rates, the dollar and inflation.

In banks and at exchange houses, the dollar remained the public & # 39; and $ 38.40 in the marginal "blue" market, almost without operations, lost 50 cents and closed at $ 39.50.

B & # 39; this scenario, the Central Bank has come calmly to offer a daily Liliquidity Letters (Leliq) which put $ 193 244 million at an average rate of 58.96% a maximum of 59 .30%. Not only removed $ 15 billion & # 39; circulation, but the rate of & # 39; reduction decreased by & # 39; 0.15 but the average fell 0.32 points. The low & # 39; daily is compliant with & # 39; the idea of ​​reducing to 57% by the end of & # 39; January.

The Central Bank finds less resistance to reduce the rate because the dollar m & # 39; should demand and inflation but is producing, will have to rebound due to the increase in tariffs. The exterior has a calm part of merit. The decline of the dollar in the world pushed the price of soy, which is already USD 335 per tonne. At the end of December was negotiating 310. Oil also rose, enabling it to reduce subsidies in Vaca Muerta. In addition, reduced the price of the US Treasury Bond, which was another factor that helped the country of Argentina and it fails to drill the floor & # 39; 700 points to go għal- sought level & # 39; 600 points to settle some of the uncertainty of the debt payments in 2020.

Thus the Central Bank of the dollar fall beyond the electoral polls. The rise of the peso was another key ingredient for the reduction of country risk because of the dollar bonds fell below the dollar.

Where appropriate, eAll the Bonar 2024, the benchmark of the dollar, lost 0.82%, but the Bonar 2020 rose & # 39; 0.44% a decrease of & # 39; more than 2% of the dollar in the last few wheels. The Bonar 2019, the single most required by securities, reduced rates & # 39; his return to 2.97% despite the fact that f & # 39; April maturity he pays the principal and interest to 6.25% per annum. Discount in the & # 39; dollars with Argentina law of return is 14.5% now & # 39 At the other extreme,; 12.60%

This explains that the country risks losing 2.05% and is in & # 39; 716 basis points. The fall of the dollar in the world – lost 0.50% against the major currencies – and in Brazil and Mexico, helped the peso strength. The suspension of the increase in rates in the United States reinforced the emerging bonds because foreign buyers have returned to Latin America and some cents scattered in Argentina before better electoral landscape, although knowing that everything is epimerali.

The reserves rose by USD 21 million to 65 737 million due to the rise in the euro and gold left to USD 106 million profit. The payments abroad were only 3 million to Brazil to offset the foreign trade operations.

Where is continuing euphoria in the stock market accumulated profits of & # 39; almost 25% in & # 39; dollars in thirteen consecutive increase. Of & # 39; recalled that last year, investors have lost 50% and to recover from that reduction, this year the stock market has increased 100% in & # 39; dollars.

The index Merval rose & # 39; 2.19% but 35 minutes from closing was due to a maximum of 2.96%. Thereafter there was gain. The amount of & # 39; & # 39 business increased by; 75% compared to the wheels before this rally & # 39; thirteen consecutive increase. Operations were $ 834 million and benefited more roles were those of the banks and the energy companies. Macro added 7.63% and TRANSPORTADORA Gas del Norte, 5.42%.

On Wall Street ADRs of Argentine companies rose with the exception of & # 39; Banco Supervielle (-0.22%) and Telecom Argentina (-1.58%). Among such share certificates, the most outstanding were Banco Macro (+ 6.88%), MercadoLibre (+ 4.32%) and Banco Francés (+ 3.12%).

The government has taken pressure that came from abroad. It is not his own merit, but help your monetary policy to be less vulnerable and strengthened in the survey. The market understands b & # 39; that way. So it remains & # 39; recourse to securities denominated in peso.

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