The activity increased by two consecutive quarters & # 39; & # 39 losses, 4.1% and 0.4% in the second and third, respectively
Publish estimates & # 39; Economic Activity & # 39; Monthly (EMAE), which showed a decrease of & # 39; 1.9% compared to the month & # 39; before. B & # 39; this way, the third quarter declined 0.4% in the second, he had suffered a reduction of & # 39; 4.1% in relation to the first.
The EMAE had six consecutive months with & # 39; negative outcomes as a result of & # 39; devaluation, drought and high rates of & # 39; interest. From January to September inclusive economic activity accumulating losses of & # 39; 1.5%.
According to statistics body, the branches of activity with greater incidence in the contraction were wholesale, retail and repairs (-12.8%); the manufacturing industry (-10.8%), and transport and communication (-4.6%).
Meanwhile, fishing (2.8%), financial intermediation (2.6%) and agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry (2.2%) were the best sectors results in & # 39; September.
"B & # 39; this data, the second consecutive quarter ended with & # 39; activity fell (-4.1% and 0.4%, respectively), confirming the start of & # 39; new recession, b & # 39 ; link & # 39; other periods recessive – eight months from the end cap (January) -, the actual decline in activity was similar to the 2002 recessions, in 2009 and 2012. The bet will be copying -dinamika 2012, b & # 39; relatively swift victory, or at least reduce the pattern & # 39; reduction in & # 39; a shorter period than in 2002 or 2009, "as indicated in the LCG of & # 39; consultancy.
In turn, f & # 39; Ecolatina explained that "delete the negative impact of drought (the agricultural sector grew 2.2% year on year in & # 39; September), the economic contraction respond primarily to two factors: increase in the exchange rate and acceleration & # 39; inflation ".
"The consequent reduction in purchasing power in & # 39; dollars and f & # 39; balances decreased demand for durable goods for a long time and the consumer, prompting companies to reduce production to a minimum because of the growing financial burden of maintaining & # 39; high stocks in & # 39; context & # 39; reduced sales. Moreover, b & # 39; in particular in & # 39; in September, movements in & # 39, putting the exchange rate and expectations of & # 39; new agreement with the IMF caused uncertainty resign, and paralyzed the making of & # 39; economic agents ".
For the last three months of the year, Ecolatina expect "statistics show deepening recession, which would leave the year with & # 39; level & # 39; activity 2.4% lower than that achieved in 2017. for a significant reduction in the production of & # 39; reduction & # 39; 5% in the first nine & # 39; year-round), will increase greater deterioration of services (they accumulate until September increase & # 39; almost 1%). the decline in supply that will accelerate in recent months This is a sign of the significant impact of real wages at the level of & # 39; activity by private consumption (component representing 70% of domestic demand), due to further deterioration in real wages, as a result of inflation accelerating. in addition, public consumption will go back b & # 39; a result of the tightening of fiscal targets . "
In LCG they finished: "It is difficult to predict when the activity would lead the reċessjonarja trajectory caused by the devaluation of jumps." For this to happen, it is necessary to first obtain situation & # 39; exchange stability starts to go & # 39; forward in a process & # 39; gradual reduction of interest rates. interest. "