Friday , December 3 2021

Surveys and employment: the reasons why the Central Bank took place figures & # 39; the INE



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Employment and wages ended up as the most important economic indicators of 2018. This is because, while the GDP and investment kiberu b & # 39; more than 4% and 6%, respectively, work and wages remained stagnant. However, yesterday took another mix, in the & # 39; & # 39 with this, flagrant dispute, albeit implicit, between the Central Bank (BC) and the National Statistics Institute (INE).

The BC decided, b & # 39; unprecedented way, which includes a special section on the labor market in the Monetary Policy Report for December, published yesterday. And the first time was a scandal. The reason? The agency concluded, essentially, that the figures of unemployment, wages and job creation of INE unreliable.

The document states that "given the significant impact of migratory flows, growth in employment recorded since 2016 was greater than that reported by the survey, which is added to the review & # 39; over the remuneration indices calculated by INE ".

The Central Bank experts claim that the numbers used to reflect the labor market "is not only highly aggregated, but represent net movements." This implies that much of the information, such as differences in the behavior of & # 39; different groups or changes in the composition of flows, is not present in analyzing or in the public debate ".

methodological issue?

The survey and factor & # 39; immigration come back for it. The main dart bank indicates that statistics on employment "is based on extrapolation of & # 39; survey of the population, by & # 39; factors & # 39; expansion, which in turn are based on population projections are updated in & # 39; each Census ". To say that the indicators can not measure the magnitude of phenomena such as immigration.

In fact, the only figure that it intends to realize is that in the last three years, between 120,000 and 190,000 people have been absorbed by the labor market and the INE failed to account for it.

So, Chile is blind to understand their own reality in the job? "M & # 39; no need dramatizzazzjoni, for any survey is easy to deal with changes in & # 39; blow population, which is what happened two years ago. The important thing is that the INE already in the making process corrections ", comments Juan Bravo, macroeconomic analyst & # 39; Clapes UC.

Of course, the expert agrees that "there are elements in the & # 39; correction process: frame & # 39; outdated sampling and calibrate again the & # 39; expanding features. The corrections bring c -ċifri immigrant employment figures gradually towards more in line with reality. "

For his part, Jorge Gajardo, economist & # 39; U. Central, indicates that "the BC sees failure in the demographic projection is very old and without taking migration and the instrument is failing". But the figures & # 39; the INE are so wrong? "The labor market gives its own signal, and if there were many more jobs, there should be a noticeable increase in the wage bill, that is not the case because it is stagnant ', says the academic.

Finally, Gajardo out that "can & # 39; understand the overall base & # 39; that explains the BC, but I am I like the fact that come with & # 39; such risky sign and is convenient for government. " It is true when he says that we need a more complex set of & # 39; indicators. to make more compelling statistical basis, but their insurance does not appear convincing. "

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