Thursday , December 9 2021

Wall Street manages to win awesome & # 39; of & # 39; rapid recession in the US and fell & # 39; at 3%


Little and nothing ran optimism that month opened to global markets, after yesterday's three key indicators & # 39; Wall Street registered a decline & # 39; more than 3%.

Reversing curve of Treasury bonds, which occurs for the first time in & # 39; more than a decade, is making investors nervous, because generally anticipate a period of & # 39; economic recession in United States, as in 2006 before the financial crisis. .

B & # 39; in particular, this movement implies that the short-term returns are higher than long ones.

F & # 39; this moment, the curve showing the difference between the yield of Treasury bonds & # 39; two and five years is already in & # 39; negative territory, as well as showing the difference between the three and five-year bond (see infografiku).

However, the curve is short-term bond, a & # 39; years, and long-term, a & # 39; ten, always draws the attention of analysts.

F & # 39; in this case, yet conversely totaling 11.68 basis points, but raises concerns that its current level represents half that seen a week ago and still growing distance by 54 basis points What started year.

F & # 39; that context, the Nasdaq, which led to corrections & # 39; the past two months, fell & # 39; back 3.8% yesterday, while the S & P 500 fell 3.2% and the Dow Jones 3.1%.

"It's awesome & # 39; the yield curve invested and what that means to the economy" to encourage the markets, says Chuck Carlson, CEO & # 39; Services of & # 39; Investment & # 39; Horizon, Reuters. "It is a precursor of & # 39; recession", he added.

However, there are those who try to put cold cloths. Kathryn Rooney, macroeconomic strategy director of the Capital Markets Bulltick, said Pulse jet that even if the curve of bonds and short-term reverse, "this does not mean recession", since this change is "quite temporary ' .

more trouble

F & # 39; that framework, he believes that the feeling & # 39; the size investors several other events. "Theresa May has lost support in Brexit, the chief economic adviser & # 39; Donald Trump,

Larry Kudlow, said that for m & # 39; no agreement with China; voting member of the Fed committee said there are still reasons to raise the rate and, finally, the curve does not help, "said Rooney.

Indeed, although in the Old Continent loss was much more limited than on the other side of the Atlantic (-0.8%, Euro Stoxx), the divorce process between the United Kingdom and EU adds uncertainty.

In the first five days & # 39; discussions in the British parliament, both supporters and detractor of & # 39; Brexit expressed lack of & # 39; their agreement to the plan & # 39; agreed to divorce & # 39; Brussels, which depends on an orderly exit from the block and the future & # 39; May as prime minister.

On the other hand, among the investors & # 39; New York, the words & # 39; Larry Kudlow, the day of & # 39; previously indicated that & # 39; Beijing should "commitments", that "presumably implemented", which was interpreted as a fairly optimistic tone in & # 39; relation expressed earlier by the White House.

Then it was the same President of the United States, Donald Trump, who raised doubts about the future of commercial war. If an agreement with China is not possible, "I charge manual", said the president, noting that negotiations between the two nations have already begun.

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