(Source: Panoramic View)
Economic Observer Online reporter Li Ziwei On Monday, global capital market has generally led to a good start. Not only the equity markets including China, the US, Japan and the United Kingdom were red, but the crude oil market also showed high growth. In 20 points, the Brent crude oil rose nearly 4%, and once missed the 62 US dollars. In the domestic market of crude oil, the market opened after opening, at 10: 38 am, the main contract crude oil futures & # 39; Shanghai increased by & # 39; 5 , 37%.
Two days ago, on 1 & # 39; December, the Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the G20 meeting & # 39; Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad both major crude oil exporters in the world "agreed to extend our agreement". M & # 39; no clear figures for reducing production.
The Russians remarks opened the door for OPEC to reach agreement in the 6 conference & # 39; December, and is also considered as the direct cause of the rise in oil prices. According to the plan, on 6 & # 39; December, members & # 39; OPEC will hold a meeting & # 39; policy in Vienna, and is expected to implement the plan & # 39; reducing production.
In the past few months, the international price of oil experienced a continuous increase, and rose & # 39; & # 39 for four; years in & # 39; October, until the price of oil fell by & # 39; significantly in & # 39; in November. Since October, the international oil price decreased by & # 39; more than 30%. F & # 39; in November, also registered the largest monthly deductions from the financial crisis of 2008.
At 13: 00 5 & # 39; in November, the US punitive measures against Iran's energy industry officially entered into force. The United States has previously said it will be the hardest punishment in history. The market once predicted that crude oil exports & # 39; Iran will be reduced by & # 39; 100 to 1.5 million barrels per day due to the '' oil ban, which will affect the prices oil. However, that the price of oil has not been strengthened, but it was inclement, and repeatedly showed a decrease of & # 39; 7% in the night.
Due to the decline in international oil prices, Saudi Arabia, one of the major oil producers in the world, invited all countries that produce oil to reduce production as much as & # 39; possible. Originally, OPEC plans to cut production by & # 39; 1 million barrels per day in & # 39; in January 2019, and Saudi Arabia cut production by & # 39; month. However, Russia, which is one of the three leading exporters of the world & # 39; crude oil, refused to cut production until now, and finally changed its attitude.
Analysts believe that although Russia has sufficient capacity, oil prices have fallen too, and as a major oil producer, will suffer losses when exporting crude oil. This is also the reason why Russia joined & # 39; Saudi Arabia to cut production.
The refined oil prices of China are closely related to crude oil prices in the international market. On 30 & # 39; in November, the National Development and Reform announced that from 24: 00 to 30 & # 39; November 2018, the domestic prices of gasoline and diesel (standard products, the same below) decreased by & # 39; 540 yuan and 520 yuan per ton respectively. Per liter, 89 # gasoline gets b & # 39; 0.40 yuan, 92 # gasoline gets b & # 39; 0.42 yuan, 95 # gasoline gets b & # 39; 0.44 yuan, and 0 # diesel gets b & # 39; 0.44 yuan.
After cutting the price, the petrol & # 39; Beijing No. Raised by 92 & # 39; 0.43 yuan per vehicle. According to the estimated 50 liters of & # 39; general tanks household fuel, worth 21.5 million yuan to fill the oil box.
From the perspective of the entire year, the decline in the price of oil is the tenth reduction since 2018. Since the beginning of & # 39; this year, China carried out 23 oil price adjustment.
S & # 39; is sure is that the conference a few days after OPEP, the decline in production is already planned. However, after OPEC reduced production, if the decline in international oil prices can not stop, f & # 39; eye industry, is still questionable.
The relevant people & # 39; Dongming Petrochemical analyzed the network & # 39; Economic observation that the increase in oil prices short term relates to the results obtained during the G20 summit, but this is only an effect on & # 39; short term. Among them, the willingness & # 39; the United States still can & # 39; affect the trend of crude oil price in bulk.
As we all know, the United States today is not only the largest oil consumer in the world, but also one of the largest oil producers in the world. The recent production of US oil even surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia for the first time since 1973. At the same time, the dollar remains & # 39; currency is closely related to the oil business. This makes the United States is one of the most central roles in the international market of crude oil.
Previously, Trump has repeatedly proposed to OPEC to increase production in Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices rather than cut production to balance the market. But now, with & # 39; the recent sudden oil prices, the impact on the United States began to show new voices.
On Friday, the price of & # 39; & # 39 gallons; gasoline in the United States was & # 39; about $ 2.50, a large reduction in the monthly price of & # 39; before. This means that hundreds of & # 39; & # 39 million; Consumers in the US are benefiting from it, but for massive oil already in the United States. The industry is the opposite.
Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC (US bank), said recently: "The decline in oil prices is not beneficial unparalleled. The benefits are widespread, but the pain is concentrated in geography. "
Fuchcher believes that the impact of & # 39; cheap oil on the global economy & # 39; the US is now neutral.
The Dongming petrochemical above believe that if the future trend of increasing oil prices or a drop, or see if Trump wants to raise oil prices.