Since November, the entire steel market resulted in much, and the reduction of & # 39; this week increased by & # 39; dramatically. The data show that the price of Ribár in leading national markets reduced from 300-750 yuan / ton in November. B & # 39; correspondingly, the profitability of the steel industry of China in the first three quarters & # 39; this year increased by & # 39; over 70% year after year, and turned young situation & # 39; low profits and even losses for many years.
In the best year & # 39; performance, because steel prices have continued to decline? S & # 39; are the challenges of steel prices stabilizing? In the evening & # 39; 24 & # 39; In November, the Finance Review was invited CCTVfrom
That XINCHUANG, Dean & # 39; the Institute & # 39; Planning and Research & # 39; metallurgical industry, and Guo Liyan, Researcher & # 39; Czech Academy & # 39; MacroeconomicsStudent guest, in-depth analysis.
The steel prices continue to drop on pushing hands
That XINCHUANG: The market expectations are optimistic is the main reason for the decline in steel prices
That XINCHUANG, Dean & # 39; the Institute & # 39; Planning and Research & # 39; metallurgical industry:Firstly, pressure & # 39; down on economic growth has increased, especially related investments & # 39; steel, as the decline in real estate investment and similar situations in the automotive sector. Some projects & # 39; replacement & # 39; capacity & # 39; production and projects & # 39; transformation were put into production, and supply has been extended further. The market exceeded supply Thirdly, the trade friction has direct or indirect effects on market expectations. These are the three most important factors behind the fall in prices & # 39; this stage.
Guo Liyan: The pressure is transmitted downstream to the middle and higher reaches.
Researcher of China Institute & # 39; Macroeconomic Research Guo Liyan:Mid-platform data e-commerce e-commerce, the reduction of transaction data in & # 39; November was more obvious. The major steel enterprises increased inventory disadvantage, while the social inventory declined by & # 39; a rapid rate and indicated that the pressure transmitting from the left. Social inventories, ie, traders are reluctant to buy goods, and therefore, the upstream steel mills to increase in inventories, which led to a decline in prices.
That XINCHUANG: The steel prices have room to fall but there is also demand for support
That XINCHUANG, Dean & # 39; the Institute & # 39; Planning and Research & # 39; metallurgical industry:Firstly, there is room for steel prices decline, but do not think it will decrease by & # 39; significantly. All Chinese economy will continue to develop b & # 39; stable way, so the demand for steel will remain & # 39; high. Secondly, if the steel price is too low in previous years, the high price this year will be necessary to some extent, the industry is an industry with & # 39; intense intensity & # 39 , capital and technology intensive. Both production and R & D intensive investment. Therefore, the development b & # 39; industry support for his health requires a reasonable profit, which is also internal support.
The steel prices should stabilize. Where is the challenge?
That XINCHUANG: production control, market stabilization
That XINCHUANG, Dean & # 39; the Institute & # 39; Planning and Research & # 39; metallurgical industry:It is important that the production is controlled and expand b & # 39; explicit production mode.2016year to2018De national capacity1.5Billion tonnes, simultaneously knocked out1.4The ability of & # 39; production & # 39; 100 million tons of & # 39; band & # 39; steel, together with technological progress in & # 39; various aspects of productivity in industrial work & # 39; in recent years, has created conditions to improve the market price. We treat it seriously in regulation.
Liyan Guo: Do a good job, increase the level, the greening is the foundation of stabilizing prices.
Researcher of China Institute & # 39; Macroeconomic Research Guo Liyan:In fact, I disagree with the market question on the steel market as a bull market and the market heads. The structural reform on the supply side is actually a mixture of & # 39; rise and fall: the removal of non & # 39; invalid validity, this is the dividend reduction, but also brings the cost recovery & # 39; this round, which makes a lot of steel companies operate better;
Before investigajna f & # 39; Jiangsu and Zhejiang, some & # 39; steelworks started to upgrade their products during the last round & # 39; price reductions. When I & # 39; will return & # 39; I visit,11The price of & # 39; collapsed this month & # 39 ;, not affected, because the reduction is not their core products & # 39; steel. Therefore, I believe that the development of & # 39; high and green is an important foundation for the future stabilization of prices.
That XINCHUANG: Developing & # 39; quality is the fundamental way to the steel industry
That XINCHUANG, Dean & # 39; the Institute & # 39; Planning and Research & # 39; metallurgical industry:The whole country is turning to development & # 39; high quality, and the steel industry must also adapt to this general trend. First, we do a good job in & # 39; green area and b & # 39; low emissions & # 39; carbon. The smart manufacturing efficiency and make the most competitive steel efficiency, while raising standards and building the brand, to steel of China really improve its operational level.
Liyan Guo: This round of price reduction is an inevitable process to go to the market to dynamically adjust the supply and demand.
Researcher of China Institute & # 39; Macroeconomic Research Guo Liyan:M & # 39; need to worry about not return if the price for the loss & # 39; the industry a few years ago. Today, the industrial structure of the steel industry and the distribution of all proceeds are not the same as before. This is the result in & # 39; structural reform phase supply. As a competitive industry, the future of the steel industry industry chain, from production to sale, for profit and loss, should be process & # 39; dynamic adjustment.
The game of profit on the black industry chain Who is eating tiger in the mouth?
Now everyone in the chain of the black industry is concerned about the profitability of steel production. When we & # 39; forward over the past year, I have seen the price of turbot as an example. The price does not seem too decent, except for the beginning of the year. Have you ever fallen in & # 39; recent times. The price of hot coil is worse than & # 39; tying, why? Because some new industries are now being released, the future ability of & # 39; hot coils exceed 330 million tons. The price of raw materials is high in profit, the steel industry is ready to produce, and is willing to pay more for the price of raw materials. The coke prices increased by & # 39; constant way, the coal coke prices increased by & # 39; constant way, and scrap prices have just returned. This shows that the profitability of the upstream process has been compressed into short, and steel factory & # 39; short began to take the raw material. This logic also applies to coke and iron ore for some time.
Demand terminal, rate & # 39; growth & # 39; investment & # 39; 5.7%, rate & # 39; Real estate growth continued to decline, 9.7%, real estate investment is an investment & # 39; construction and installation, investment & # 39; Construction in & # 39; September is -3.45%, that & # 39; before -3.24% The first is -7.28%. Investment real estate on steel demand can & # 39; draw in phase & # 39; From now & # 39; forward, demand for short-term steel is about to enter the season & # 39; out. At present, demand in the middle is somewhat weak. In the long run, the growth rate of & # 39; investment & # 39; long-term fixed assets decreased.
The investment is divided into three parts, real estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure. This year, the real estate industry has undergone more important changes. Rate & # 39; growth of new construction area and construction area of the property is good, and Jian & # 39; an failed. After everyone has the floor, they hope to enter the sales process as much as & # 39; as possible, so there should be a rush to enter the sales department to control the cost and monitor progress construction. The real estate industry has seen a marked change in attitude after June and July & # 39; this year. will not begin until May, but several sites & # 39; Construction will begin simultaneously in & # 39; July. S & # 39; it is the reason? The market can & # 39; replaced, and the land must be realized, otherwise the real estate company lose money in the future. Rate & # 39; growing area of & # 39; purchase & # 39; real estate has changed, and the rate of & # 39; growth in & # 39; October was negative b & # 39; 10%. F & # 39; As x & # 39; intersects with the current situation, the construction of the site & # 39; the real estate industry is relatively normal, and some of them are in the process & # 39 ; rushing. Demand appeared to be good. Until last week, there has been some reduction in demand.
Last year, the environmental protection has restrictions on construction, but the restrictions & # 39; not this year. F & # 39; this year, the rigid demand in & # 39; & # 39 in May, July is pretty good, but it is expected that this winter is not environmental enclosure. . The real estate industry has a point & # 39; expected change. Although sources & # 39; funding accumulated by now & # 39; & # 39 rate, relatively stable growth, have found that their expectations for the future have been replaced by & # 39; exchanges with & # 39; real estate companies. Those expectations will change the speed of the land and will also change the speed of investment, to reduce the demand for steel, especially the Ribár.
The manufacturing investment is recovering, and of course invest in industry when making a profit, because it will expand production capacity, or hopes to conduct technological transformation, or to invest in & # 39; of & # 39 requirements; environmental protection. S & # 39; I do when profits decline? If the growth rate of & # 39; investment is stable or not x & # 39; is likely to be unstable, and the profit growth rate of & # 39; industrial enterprises began to decline.
The investment growth rate in infrastructure is stable and the investment growth rate is very low. In the context of & # 39; huge local debt, as is enthusiastic infrastructure & # 39; local government investment? Now is a brand & # 39; question. Because local governments are more concerned about liability, if generated new debts, liability can not be. From a long-term, the growth rate of & # 39; investment in infrastructure will not increase. China is in & # 39; & # 39 period; transition between models & # 39; New and old growth. Period & # 39; transition is precisely the model & # 39; The new growth has not been fortified and model & # 39; old growth is slowing. However, we must trust in the future economy of China.
The peak season for steel consumption is growing, and the latter should probably start last weekend. The situation that traders know from mills & # 39; steel, a sign that, for example, businessmen asked goods from plants & # 39; steel, and mills & # 39; steel usually have only two or only one specification specifications and bring & # 39; away. It was last week, and I wanted everything. Although there was no obvious change in price and quantity, it has been speculated that the steel filling inventory about to happen.
The apparent consumption has been increasing this year. The apparent consumption in & # 39; & # 39 was in September, 91.55 million, and in & # 39; & # 39 was in September; 92 million. From the date of & # 39; frequency, the national transaction on building materials began to decline b & # 39; significant way last week.
Traders are more cautious because they will come in season & # 39; & # 39 out f; December. Social inventories & # 39; steel fell, intermediate goods not achieved, and increased stocks & # 39; leading companies & # 39; steel. A reduction in steel inventory miles, is the reduction of & # 39; passive or active DEDUCTIONS? If the active reduction means that steel mills start to sell, such sales will not be & # 39; support as the price, but be pressure. From Steel Index Langer Purchasing Managers, the interest & # 39; everyone weaken.
The revenue & # 39; December immediately, when winter storage start of this year, the steel trading companies and steel mills attitude is completely opposite. This spring, the steel trade enterprises have little money to make objects Some time ago, exchanged with & # 39; steel trading enterprises Everyone was injured & # 39; If steel seriously do not give more compensation in appropriate & # 39; this winter, the steel trading business interest in winter storage is not high. Combined with the problem next year, after obtaining the steel and sells the next year, x & # 39; they are the downstream demand the next year, nobody bored talking now. Now that the macro is bearish, f & # 39; difficult situation, the new Politburo meeting not yet say that the real estate market started. In the future, the steel products, especially building materials, can be partially suppressed. The total demand for steel products can & # 39; to be a little weaker the next year.
Data on production and sales & # 39; & # 39 excavators in; October was relatively good, b & # 39; & # 39 signs; reduction. Rate & # 39; automotive growth was -10%, a decrease of & # 39; 10%. This shows that there are some problems with downstream consumption, including other signals.
The production of steel steel production, the production of iron ore in & # 39; October was & # 39; 67.74 million tons, and year growth was 12.87%, crude steel increased by & # 39; 9%, the Ribár increased by only & # 39; 0.08% and a wall production was limited. The proportion of production & # 39; steel for iron ore, production & # 39; plants & # 39; gradually shortened steel being released. The steel production process is subject to short restrictions & # 39; profit. If this part is destroyed, the market will be reduced, it needs to follow up.
The extent of & # 39; production & # 39; this year, from spring & # 39; this year to days & # 39; before being heated limited production, but production has not decreased much after the limit of production, our production is passivata of environmental protection. In the last two years, the steel companies were also good, the coke enterprises are also good, investment in environmental protection is relatively large, affected the steel mills of costs & # 39; environmental protection can increase 200-300 yuan per ton & # 39; steel. Already has any of the following equipment to meet the requirements. In the second aspect, the profitability of the steel industry was maintained at & # 39; high. If maintaining the environment, other technical measures can be taken to increase production. Come down and rising.
At the index of purchasing managers of the steel industry, the interest & # 39; everybody is very high, due to high profits. When will reduce production? Only when corporate profits & # 39; steel to be compressed to a certain extent, there is a decline in production. Recently, due to the decrease in profits, environmental protection, the operating rate of the blast furnace, the average yield of & # 39; daily crude steel, such impact can not alter expectations market, especially now. By the end of the year, demand became even middle intermediate supply, which is not a & # 39; very beneficial to the relationship of & # 39; supply and demand.
This is the production and wire production & # 39; the parent company, because the margin & # 39; profit is relatively high. The export volume of steel is relatively low, as domestic steel prices are very good. Looking at the inventory of steel enterprises, data published by the China Association of Iron and Steel shows that there are accumulated libraries. The next question is, is a way to reduce production and ensuring prices or take advantage? From the current perspective, the production does not seem to drop too, so the process & # 39; accumulation will continue. If the inventory is high to some extent, the price can & # 39; anything & # 39; down because the steel begins to sell.
Imports of iron ore are still in & # 39; a high level, but imports decreased in & # 39; October. The trips can be constrained by commercial profits If the price of mine pulled off and spread, many people are willing to import it. The market reflects the trading profits. From the perspective of & # 39; imports and production, individuals believe that m & # 39; & # 39 no shortage; supply. Where is the full attention? It is played between the mines and steel mills. F & # 39; in September, increased the price of minerals. F & # 39; this time, the steel companies in the steel mills were replaced again and the number of & # 39; available days 9 & # 39; November increased to 29 days which is relatively high in & # 39; in recent years. Next, we need to give attention to the rhythm of & # 39; the steel factory replenishment is being discontinued. If you stop, will soon be reflected in the reduction of shipments. Looking at the current situation, emerged stocks & # 39; steel minerals. F & # 39; normal circumstances, the power of & # 39; & # 39 can supply; decreases. From today's perspective, still in & # 39; relatively high position.
The domestic production of the mine is relatively weak, b & # 39; minor impact on the price of mine. Mining mainly imported, starting from steel scrap, when the output of the short process is compressed to a certain extent, the compression of the long process begins when the price of iron uncompressed.
The supply of coke is variable, and ten production is in & # 39; relatively high position. Care must be taken to the fact that the lifting of the coke production plant can & # 39; is limited, and the rate of & # 39; capacity utilization by decreasing year & # 39; year. If the steel companies start to increase production interests in the future, such as the following spring, can & # 39; found that the supply of coke has been affected. Recently, the steel mills are filling the coke stocks, and some companies have them. Some of them were not completely filled. Now on price negotiations are at a very delicate process, and some coking plants are reduced by & # 39; 100 and some steel plants decreased by & # 39; 50%. Now they are in a relatively balanced state. Since coke fueling performed with gradually, as the profitability of steel production is compressed, it can & # 39; is f & # 39; some point in the future, and the price coke spot can & # 39; fall & # 39; in & # 39; mid-next month. Where is the heart? The profitability of steel production is the heart
When steel production profits begin to decline, the steel mills operations to increase production and reduce costs, so profits can be quite guaranteed, but when steel prices continue to fall, When the steel profits continue to fall and to a lesser extent, the steel companies will see a reduction in production. The main focus of the single market in the future is the profitability of steel production.
From the current perspective, the steel demand is about to enter the season, demand middle reflects the intermediate supply, dealer reflects intermediate supply in the year the trader goes to the store of the winter only when the price is right. Every year, m & # 39; there is no winter storage, and every year a winter storage. The key is when the price is right. When we spoke to northern traders, sometimes 3500, is suitable, the steel mill is appropriate and inappropriate, I will play the game here in the future.
The steel production is not as good as expected. Although China Steel Association released some data, the decrease is very limited. The steel fill up the pace at the start of the decline in profits, the steel mills mills are more willing to increase production. His demand for raw materials is quite good, but when profits continue to decline to some extent, Coke, short-term supply from the current perspective, the coke enterprises rarely have inventories, because the mills steel have increased demand for goods. Second coke enterprises have never had much inventory, which is determined by the ability to resist risks. Most coke enterprises m & # 39; have the capacity to acquire. Now there is a point & # 39; inflexjoni. This point & # 39; change is the replenishment of the steel mill can & # 39; end.
We give attention to steel production gains. Currently, the profitability of steel production is declining. We see the steel mills short start making profit from upstream scraps and then see when steel prices fall rapidly. While judging from the current situation, the enterprises & # 39; production & # 39; long debt & # 39; rebates are obvious pressures & # 39; When reduce inventory cost, the production efficiency will be reduced by reduction in the profitability of production leads to transmission & # 39; above. There are different opinions, probably in the recent past, because coming season, the profits of industrial chain are compressing. When talked to & # 39; steel companies recently, everyone is pessimistic. As last year, this year, the makrosessiżmu on next year will be transmitted to the industry. The decline in steel prices this year can & # 39; greater than last year. The storage time of the traders winter only appears when the spot price decrease by & # 39; strongest. (Zhonghui Futures Li Wei)Go back and see Sohu
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