The view & # 39; top dollar in the world was well received by many domestic and foreign experts.
Reducing the world & # 39; USD
The last week, Morgan Stanley Bank said the dollar momentum came to an end and it's time to sell the currency. The global head of foreign exchange strategy & # 39; Morgan Stanley, Hans Redeker, wrote in & # 39; note: "We believe that the dollar reached a peak at the current level. The dollar can & # 39 ; weaken as spreads & # 39; performance, the stock prices are falling and the government bond yields begin to ease as the deflation pressures and oil prices fall.
This view is also supported by Bernard Lapointe, Head & # 39; Analysis Viet Dragon Securities. F & # 39; recent note, the expert said: "The momentum of the dollar could & # 39; ended", investors seem to escape from the dollar. One reason is that the superiority of & # 39; the economy & # 39; the United States to the rest of the world may have peaked.
The swap & # 39; interest rate denominated in dollars was fully reflected in the green debts will decrease by the Federal Reserve m & # 39; still more reluctant to support an increase in rates. the last month. Some of Fed officials have indicated that they willing to "raise" the rate of the Federal Fund rate at the current rate (x & # 39; & # 39 is likely to be four, times in 2018).
This surplus was fully reflected in the dollar. The & # 39; & # 39 in capital inflows, assets denominated & # 39; dollars seem to have stopped. The global flow statement Research capital & # 39; SSI Retail for the month also shows that capital inflows from markets and US destinations and West are Asian markets.
The global economy is entering the final stage of the growth cycle. Bernard Laponte believes that the dollar reached its peak in & # 39; many currencies, including the Japanese yen. "One of the factors that increased the dollar in the last ten months was leaving the view that the reduction in corporate tax in the US will lead to the return of & # 39; money from abroad to the United States. it has almost become. If so, the White House and Trump x & # 39; likely to be inclined to think that the weak dollar will help the US economy in 2019. "Thus, Bernad Lapointe recommends selling & # 39; dollars and buy currencies in Asia.
Reduce the pressure on the exchange rate
This will help reduce pressure on the exchange rate VND / USD. As part of one of the factors that led to increase of the exchange rate over the last time, according to experts explained is the global market performance, especially with the increase of the interest rate Fed. HSBC Experts also commented: "The rate of & # 39; domestic interest, the pressure still exists when the Fed shows that the roadmap to raise the interest rates came to an end. In fact, in the year, some time, some traders were traded freely in the movements of the exchange rate VND / USD market worldwide.
Moreover, the interest rates on the interbank market remained high long-term and support the exchange rate and analysts predict that the voluntary will continue from now until the lunar New Year. As a result, many & # 39; credit institutions raised the rates of & # 39; Their deposit market to ensure liquidity at the end of the year.
The exchange rate is broadly supported by many factors as mentioned above with a trade balance since the beginning of the year to the first half & # 39; & # 39 by November; surplus & # 39; nearly $ 6.3 billion. But one thing to keep in & # 39; mind is that during the 2008-2012 period when the dollar has fallen sharply, the exchange rate VND / USD increased from VND18,000 to VND22,000 around before withdrawing to VND20,000.
The situation of the exchange rate in the coming time can & # 39; to be more dependent on demand and supply in the economy. In fact, in 2018, the exchange rate is stable because the State Bank sells b & # 39; aggressive manner dollars to intervene in the market. Another factor that supports the exchange rate VND / USD is the fact that the RMB against the US dollar has fallen below the 7.0 – an important psychological threshold. The statistics & # 39; Financial Times show that the People's Bank of China sold about $ 32 billion to intervene in the foreign exchange market of China.
Regarding the outlook, the Standard Chartered Bank experts predict that the exchange rate varies around 23,400 VND / USD by the end of 2018. Ho Tien Ly, technical analyst & # 39; Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company "Index USD x & # 39; likely to exceed 98 USD. The index will continue to vary in the channel & # 39; upwards & # 39 ; 94-98 in the next time. " Regarding the exchange rate VND / USD, the technical trend is still bullish. The RSI persists unwelcome in the area & # 39; high levels but the interbank rates did not increase with & # 39; significantly after the rally & # 39; mid-term. "The exchange rate will continue to move to the side, waiting for new variations," said Mr. Li.